The estimate is the first number a bidder sees after the lot title, and the number consignors argue about most. It is a range, low to high, that a specialist believes the lot will sell for at hammer, before buyer’s premium. Its job is to attract bids by telling the market roughly what the auction house thinks the lot is worth, while leaving room for competition to decide the actual price.
How estimates are set
Specialists set estimates from comparable results: what the same or similar lots made recently at auction, adjusted for condition, provenance, rarity and the state of the market. For common collectibles with deep price histories, such as graded coins, cards or stamps, the comparable is almost mechanical. For unique objects the estimate is a judgement, and the published range is kept wide enough to be honest. A low estimate that is slightly conservative is the usual choice because it draws more bidders into the room, and bidders who are already engaged bid higher than bidders who were put off by the catalog.
Estimates, reserves and sell-through
The estimate and the reserve are set together. If the consignor wants a reserve at the high estimate, the estimate is wrong or the reserve is, and the lot will probably be bought in. A sale’s sell-through rate is largely a report on how well the estimates and reserves were set.
Estimates in auction software
An estimate is a field on the lot record, published in the catalog, used to sort and filter the sale page, and compared with the hammer price in the post-sale reports. Circuit’s AI cataloging proposes an estimate range from the photographs and the description it drafts, using comparable results, so the specialist’s job is to confirm or adjust rather than to look everything up; the predictive intelligence behind that is the same data that tells you after the sale which categories are running above or below estimate.
